Microdemographic Determinants of Population Recovery among the Northern Aché.

A pattern of population crash and rapid recovery is a common feature of the pacification and settlement experience of the indigenous peoples of tropical South America. Despite the obvious importance of these events to the demographic and anthropological sciences as a whole, as well as their significant practical implications, little is known about the microdemographic determinants of these paired phenomena. Using methods of asymptotic and stochastic demographic analysis, we reconstructed the microdemographic drivers of this history among one indigenous population: the Northern Aché of eastern Paraguay. This article explores the implications of these relationships for understanding the overall demographic turnaround observed within similar groups, as well as for the future trajectory of the Northern Aché in particular.

An evaluation of the accuracy of small-area demographic estimates of population at risk and its effect on prevalence statistics.

Demographic estimates of population at risk often underpin epidemiologic research and public health surveillance efforts. In spite of their central importance to epidemiology and public-health practice, little previous attention has been paid to evaluating the magnitude of errors associated with such estimates or the sensitivity of epidemiologic statistics to these effects. In spite of the well-known observation that accuracy in demographic estimates declines as the size of the population to be estimated decreases, demographers continue to face pressure to produce estimates for increasingly fine-grained population characteristics at ever-smaller geographic scales. Unfortunately, little guidance on the magnitude of errors that can be expected in such estimates is currently available in the literature and available for consideration in small-area epidemiology. This paper attempts to fill this current gap by producing a Vintage 2010 set of single-year-of-age estimates for census tracts, then evaluating their accuracy and precision in light of the results of the 2010 Census. These estimates are produced and evaluated for 499 census tracts in New Mexico for single-years of age from 0 to 21 and for each sex individually. The error distributions associated with these estimates are characterized statistically using non-parametric statistics including the median and 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles. The impact of these errors are considered through simulations in which observed and estimated 2010 population counts are used as alternative denominators and simulated event counts are used to compute a realistic range fo prevalence values. The implications of the results of this study for small-area epidemiologic research in cancer and environmental health are considered.